florida weather in september

I am in the process of booking up for a JASA trip and hoping to go out to Tiger Beach at the end of september. ( not this year )

what are the chances of being blown out by a hurricane or tornado at this time of year.

All replies from locals appreciated.

Stew

I'm not a FL local, but do dive the Gulf and have had my trips cancelled for high seas and other weather. (FGNMS charters out of Freeport TX, 3 times over the last couple years, one June, one Aug, and one September).

There's really no 'guarantees' or odds - although in my impression there do seem to be more 'upper gulf region' storms (near US FL/AL/LA/TX coastal vs. further down into the Carribbean or out along the Atlantic seaboard) as you get later in the season in general.

One tool is of course the National Hurricane Center track summaries, but even if a track wasn't on top of where you're going, storm size and direction can mean there was still a good enough blow that boats decided not to go out due to rough seas. Link is http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pastall.shtml#tracks_all ....pick the year you want for the Atlantic basin and it shows all the tracks overlayed for that year.

I guess my only advice would be if you have to fly down or whatnot and commit to costs before you'll know if the liveaboard has been cancelled or not, then trip insurance becomes just part of the cost of the vacation. For the Flower Gardens trips I don't have to as we just drive down, and they of course refund you if they have to call the trip and not go. But for my July trip to Puerto Rico we did buy trip insurance as we could be out at the very least by having to pay a rebooking fee on the plane flights if given long notice, and much more if the boat can't go out after we arrive.

We've been diving the Keys for that last 6 or so years during Sept. and Oct. and have been blown out once (ended up in Costa Rica). We did manage to do a trip between hurricanes once.

That time of year is always unpredictable, but the odds are probably in your favor (slightly). I would however either purchase trip insurance or place your final payment as late as possible just in case.

If you catch it right the diving is great but usually always good unless right behind a hurricane.

You just never know since Mother Nature is unpredictable. June-September is the best diving here. Myself, I usually wind up on a liveaboard in the Bahamas-West End come mid September. Bottom line, I would go for it. But buy trip insurance to be on the safe side.

As the others have correctly pointed out hurricane season is far from predictable. However, since 1851 486 storms have hit Florida or about 3 a year on average. 60% of those storms hit in September, the most active month. That does not stop me from living here though. When there is not a hurricane (which is most of the time) the seas are generally flat with welcoming warm tropical water. Kitty has good advice; book the trip, buy trip insurance and have a plan B. You will kick yourself if the weather is great at Tiger Beach and you aren't there.