Successor to the 10D?

I am not quite ready to dive into the DSLR arena ret (considering my investment in my current set up and my needing to gain further experience), but I am curious if anyone has any insights into what the specs may / will be on the ultimate successor from Canon for the 10D. I would assume this camera would come out sometime in 2004.

My guess would be that the camera would have to be 8-11 mps with a full CMOS sensor like the 1Ds.

Anyone have any insights / thoughts on this?

Just some speculation on the topic...We will see a 1D replacement early in 2004. The replacement will have a CMOS sensor between the 10D and 1Ds but it won't be full frame, instead a sensor along the lines of 9mp and crop of 1.3 (all this to keep the price down but offer something that will fit better between the 10D and 1Ds. Also higher burst rate 8fps for 40 frames. I would think Canon would keep the 10D around for at least another year due to it's popularity. I am waiting with baited breath for the next DSLR from Canon....

Keith

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This has been talked about in dpreview many times, and I would encourage anyone who wants to really kick up a strong discussion to do so there instead of here, but I would be very surprised if a 1D replacement is coming anytime soon. The 1D is targeted at journalists where it blows the doors off all it's competion. IF a replacement is coming I would expect a full update of the image processing hardware (Digic) but very little in the way of the CCD. Maybe an increase to 5-6MB but no more. IF you want more, buy the 1Ds. I would not expect a CMOS chip in the replacement 1D if/when it comes out because CMOS simply can't record that fast and journalists want speed. You need a CCD to get 8 frames/sec or better.

I also wouldn't expect a 10D replacement in 2004. The 10D hasn't even been out a year yet and unlike consumer digicams that are updated every 9-10 months, DSLRs have a production life of at least 2 years or more. The 10D is in such a sweetspot right now I wouldn't expect an update to it until 2005.

I think 2004 will be the year of specialty DSLR lenses. Nikon kicked this off last year with its DX series digital lenses, Canon came out with the EF-S series just recently. I would expect more (wide?) lenses throughout the year to address this demand.

What I'd really like to see is a digital version of the EOS3. It would have the 10D 6MB CMOS/Digic/etc, but would have the 45point autofocus of the EOS3, 1v, 1Ds, etc., 4 frames/sec instead of 3 and a larger buffer of maybe 15 images instead of 9. I'd also like to see a 1394 port or better yet bluetooth. But I'm not holding my breath on any of this for next year.

But I'm not holding my breath on any of this for next year.

So basically what you are saying is that you don't think Canon's going to do anything next year with any of their dSLRs?

I agree on the 10d, at the earliest maybe an update next fall, depending on what Nikon does with the D100. More likely it will be in Feb 2005.

I think the 1D will be updated, maybe to 6MP. I'd bet they move to CMOS, but as you pointed out, and Craig has in another thread, getting the necessary speed out of CMOS might be tough.

1Ds will stay as is, it's got no real competition.

The "3D" may or may not come out, but if it does, I'd expect an 8-9 MP 1.3x with the same buffer specs as the 10D, a smaller body (more like the Eos 3), and an improved AF like the 1D / 1Ds.

I guess I'm contradicting what I said in the predictions thread, because that's 5 distinct SLRs. I could just be projecting because I'd really like the 3D as described to come out in Feb 2004....

I can't believe Canon will do nothing with their DSLR lineup next year.

Six months or so ago, I was trying to buy Canon's 'state-of-the art' camera, the D60. Remember that one? There was certainly a degree of suprise online when its replacement was announced, as the D60 was well received and considered a market leader in its segment.

Luckily I picked up on the fact that the 10D was about to be released, and I few weeks later I had an early version of this camera (at a premium price unfortunately, as it was still hard to source one at that stage).

Subsequent internet buzz seemed to suggest a '3D' was going to be released sometime soon. There's still a lot of speculation about this.

Before you knew it, the 300D/digital rebel was on the market, which also suprised many. A lot of people thought Canon was competing with it's own 10D, but I'm guessing their sales figures are looking very good indeed.

To the suggestion that Canon will repond to what Nikon releases, my impression given the past years events is that Canon will continue to try to set the pace, and at this stage their size and R&D budget seems to be making it hard for others to keep up.

A '3D' would make sense in terms of model lineup, but it won't be a direct replacement for the 10D, as I'd expect its price to be significantly higher. A 1D replacement does appear imminent.

But I think the lesson of 2003 is that we are likely to be suprised by whatever happens!

Wow! lots of speculation on Canon's line. It's great to see so many enthusiastic Canon shooters. I was not suggesting Canon will do nothing with their DSLR line next year at all. The "holding my breath" comment was meant specifically for the ficticous 3D, it's been a personal wish of mine for a couple of years now that seems to not make it off Canon's design table each new model year. To be clear, I was suggesting the 3D would fill a gap between the 10D and 1Ds just as the EOS3 does today between the Elan7 and EOS 1v, not as a 10D replacement. Hopefully if there ever is a 3D it will be in the $2000-$2500 range. It would not be a replacement to the 1D as the target market is very different. Think Nikon D1X vs their D1H - 2 great cameras for two different target markets.

If you look at Canon's line today they have the Rebel, Elan, EOS3 and EOS1v. Their digital line follows 3 of those 4 models. The bodies get bigger and beefier as you go up the line as well to withstand the heavy use expected by the target users of the higher end cameras.

With the 1D being Canon's oldest active production DSLR, an update next year wouldn't surprise me, but not having an update shouldn't surprise anyone either.

As a first wave owner of a 10D since last March, I'm in no hurry to replace it anytime soon. I'm very happy with it so far. I wish it had the 45 point autofocus on the EOS3 and maybe a slightly smaller mag factor, but the images I'm getting from this camera are stunning and enlarge nicely to 13x19 so far, and I've heard you can get really good 20x30s with it as well.

the bottom line is if you already own a Canon DSLR go out and shoot it and enjoy it. If you're waiting to buy one until the next new one comes out you'll always be waiting because this industry is changing faster every year. As soon as you buy a DSLR there is rumor and specualtion of the next big thing. Just figure out what you need and what you can afford and go buy it and enjoy it and ignore the rumor mill of the next big thing.

I really do think they'll mirror their current lineup of film SLRs in the digital realm, which would be D Rebel, 10d, "3d", and 1Ds / 1D. The question really remains whether they will have 2 separate bodies, i.e. the 1D and 1Ds, to fill the spot of the film version of the 1, which would give them 5 dSLRs. Ideally from an end-user perspective, I'd rather see 4, but I think we're technology limited on the combination of the 1d and 1Ds.

I too hope something fills the gap as a 3D as I described in my previous post. I've had the D60 since last summer, and it's been great with a few minor issues, the AF being one of them. I'd like to add a second body, and I'm sort of waiting around to see what happens in terms of the 1D replacement or 3D, and depending on what happens in or around Feb 2004 (PMA), I'll decide what I want to add. If either camera comes out in the $2000-$2500 range, I'll be thrilled, as I paid close to that for my D60!!

In the mean time I'm enjoying the D60 and learning a lot as I go...