Hard-core liveaboard divers are only part of the total visitor demographic. There are backpackers and adventure travellers who stay in Labuanbajo and go into the park (for diving or just to see dragons, etc.) on day boats, and smaller cruise ships, who mostly only stay in the park for a day or two, with a dragon walk and maybe a swim/snorkel at Red Beach. Even the hard-core liveaboard diver numbers were hit in the year after the bombing to some extent, as any operator can tell you.
Though it's still early days, there is reason to believe this time won't be as bad as after 2002.
> The number of people killed or injured was much less.
>It has been noticeableover these past 12 days that there hasn't been a general exodus of tourists out of Bali comparable to what happened in 2002, nor have new arrivals stopped completely, though numbers are obviously down.
> Western governments have been a bit less quick to impose draconian new travel warnings and advisories or to upgrade old ones to higher levels. This is important, as these advisories don't just deter travellers by scaring them, but in some cases also make it impossible to get travel insurance if any part of the trip includes countries under advisories. (The Balinese are not alone in noticing that the countries that have warned against travel to Indonesia somehow didn't think it was necessary to issue advisories warning against travel to New York or the US after 9/11, nor to Britain after the tragic underground attacks earlier this year.)
> Press and media coverage has been less inflammatory and there has been more attention paid to the impact of this on the Balinese people, who aren't Muslim, and didn't vote for Bush or for Blair.
> After the 2002 bombings, the Indonesian stock market took an immediate 10% hit and the rupiah also slumped big time. That didn't happen this time.
And so on. But it's also clear that there will be some impact, for Bali and also for other Indonesian destinations. The question is how much and for how long. We'll see what the real story turns out to be over the next 18 months.