Greetings from St. Kitts, gang. On my way to the Caribbean Explorer II for a few weeks' shooting, and I'm happy to say my Pelican 1600 - and more importantly my brand new baby Bluefin - made it through the dreaded San Juan airport.
I was scared shitless as I have heard a LOT of bad things about theft through this gateway airport, but I had no problems. Actually, according to the TSA report that they put inside my case (letting you know they opened it), it actually was opened and rooted through about 10 minutes after I checked it in Boston. Honestly, i think a bigger issue than theft is some monkey is a uniform repacking the case wrong and breaking stuff. All my gear made it safely and it only cost me one of my two TSA locks.
Ultimately, I think the smaller the Pelican you check, the easier it is for it to disappear. For all sizes, I think it comes down to a simple law of averages. I've checked Pelicans of varying sizes 6 times this year through about a dozen hot zones from Miami to Queensland and I've had no problems. I also know this is gonna catch up with me eventually....