Good thread! I need to write an article about this.
Roger is correct - all that matters is you understand the concept of dewpoint. In my "day job" I often consult on drying of natural gas pipelines, so I have a bit of experience here.
As relative humidity of air goes up the dewpoint goes up. When you seal your housing above water, you are obviously above the dewpoint as it's not raining into your housing :-)
When you go into cooler water w/ humid air trapped inside your housing, (say you go from 90F outside to 80F underwater) the housing starts cooling from the outside in. Pretty simple concept. Whatever cools fastest will start to condense liquid water on it when it gets to the dewpoint temperature.
Lexan or Acrylic are good insulators. Glass is not as good. Aluminum is not as good as any of those. So if you have an Aluminum housing the water will condense on the inside of the Al housing first - which is not a problem. If you have a plastic housing with a glass port you are in trouble, as the water will condense on the glass. If you have an acrylic housing w/ an acrylic port then it's a toss up.
Solutions are vapor absorbers, or to close the housing with NO or as little trapped moisture as possible inside. If you trap it with dry air inside, that dry air may have a dewpoint of 50F - so you'll never hit that unless you're in Seattle :-)
Cheers
James