Community Updates on Coronavirus Travel Restrictions

2 hours ago, SwiftFF5 said:

I agree that this is likely to take a while to resolve.

 

Also, I want to point out that Biorxiv is for preprints, that is, they have not gone through peer review yet, so be very cautious about anything published there.  It could well be correct, but also might have errors in methodology or analysis, for example.  I am not saying that it is wrong, but to read papers there with a higher than normal level of skepticism.

Totally agree... peer review is the only valid way of validating claims and Biorxiv is not...

3 hours ago, ianmarsh said:

 

Totally agree... peer review is the only valid way of validating claims and Biorxiv is not...

 

Besides the problem with peer review: I did nor read the paper in detail, just the summary - they succeeded in raising an antibody against a virus epitope (=not really difficult). This Ab MIGHT be useful in treatment, but this is by far not granted...

Wolfgng

On 3/13/2020 at 11:29 AM, tursiops said:

It amazes me, however, that when the media directly quote or link to the primary sources, like CDC or WHO, that the information is suddenly deemed false.

I try to go straight to the source. Why, because I do not need the news media to interpret for me. They nearly always do give the information, but then they preface it and follow it with their bias which blurs what is real and what is opinion. I can go to the source and get the info without the bias. 

It is becoming increasingly clear that this pandemic is going to be a long row to hoe. And worse than most hoped it would be. I am still hopeful, perhaps based only on wishful thinking for the best for people, that this will diminish with the onset of spring. But, whether it does or not, it looks like a useful vaccine is still many months away. 

Like many here, I am sure I will be losing some money on trips already paid for. My next up trip has not yet been canceled but I expect it to be. Just not going to be a good year at all. I had hoped it would be. My wife is a nurse/therapist, she was recently exposed to a possible case, results not back yet. Great  .

@Interceptor121 Managing GDP will not be anywhere near a priority for most island nations in the near future.

Travel is going to shut down (or be severely limited), and it's likely going to happen worldwide. Countries like Singapore have done a great job of managing this outbreak, but even their residents are being told to stay in Singapore to protect their heath. Weekend dive trips to neighboring countries have dropped to zero.

This is going to take time, and you should expect that many countries will continue to close their borders (or require initial lengthy quarantine stays upon entering the country), because the health of their citizens will be more important than a (significant) downturn in their economies. 

You are thinking way too simplistically about this. For example - one UK lab has already built a model for testing for "immunity" - actually for testing for having had the virus and survived. There was a time (and in some places it is still required) that you travel with proof that you have been vaccinated for smallpox, etc. (this was the case traveling inside of India even ~15 years ago). I can easily see a number of countries requiring that you prove you have recovered from having Covid-19 or they will mandate you quarantine in place for up to 14 days upon entry.






 

20 hours ago, Interceptor121 said:

Sorry but if a vaccine or cure is 18 months away what are you going to eat in the interim? This is not going to go away in 6 months.

I hope this does not end up in going back to over fishing!

PNG no longer engage in too much cannibalism so no need for the tourists. Cargo is relatively unaffected beyond a few extra quarantine days in port. 

10 minutes ago, errbrr said:

PNG no longer engage in too much cannibalism so no need for the tourists. Cargo is relatively unaffected beyond a few extra quarantine days in port. 

Hahaha good point had not thought about cannibals...!

This thing is not going away in 3 months I believe and poverty will kick in. Without tourism all the ecosystem of business is likely to suffer extensively this is the point am trying to make

@Interceptor121 Most of the Pacific Island nations (and all of Indonesia) do not rely on tourism. tourism is a "nice to have" for many of them... not a "need to have."

There are certainly resorts (dive related or otherwise) that will struggle during this time (up to a year+). The vast majority will send staff back to local villages and live this out until travel becomes viable again. I agree some resorts might be too leveraged (loans, etc.) to survive but many will. 

Again, many of these people will go back to living as they did before diving became popular in these areas... I agree places like Cozumel might really struggle, but I have zero interest in visiting placed like that anyway.

There are certainly liveaboards that will struggle as well - but owners have options to dock their boats and wait until this is better.

And you should also consider that the Chinese influence throughout the Pacific and S.E. Asia is huge (and growing)- they invest $M's through their various initiatives. I would expect to see many more dive operations throughout the region start tailoring their offerings to Chinese tourists - who will likely be traveling again before most US & European residents. 

29 minutes ago, oneyellowtang said:

@Interceptor121 Most of the Pacific Island nations (and all of Indonesia) do not rely on tourism. tourism is a "nice to have" for many of them... not a "need to have."

There are certainly resorts (dive related or otherwise) that will struggle during this time (up to a year+). The vast majority will send staff back to local villages and live this out until travel becomes viable again. I agree some resorts might be too leveraged (loans, etc.) to survive but many will. 

Again, many of these people will go back to living as they did before diving became popular in these areas... I agree places like Cozumel might really struggle, but I have zero interest in visiting placed like that anyway.

There are certainly liveaboards that will struggle as well - but owners have options to dock their boats and wait until this is better.

And you should also consider that the Chinese influence throughout the Pacific and S.E. Asia is huge (and growing)- they invest $M's through their various initiatives. I would expect to see many more dive operations throughout the region start tailoring their offerings to Chinese tourists - who will likely be traveling again before most US & European residents. 

 

For sure but if you look at PNG vs Barbados you see that PNG has services 30% Barbados 86% so clearly in there there is tourism and hospitality. Clearly more a threat to some countries than others so I expect a fragmented response

@Interceptor121 Barbados is the world's 53rd richest country, and the Caribbean's 2nd richest per capita. Offshore banking will keep Barbados healthy for a long time... that is not an example of a country you should show concern for.

Just now, oneyellowtang said:

@Interceptor121 Barbados is the world's 53rd richest country, and the Caribbean's 2nd richest per capita. Offshore banking will keep Barbados healthy for a long time... that is not an example of a country you should show concern for.

OK we will be all fine says Donald Trump

8 minutes ago, Interceptor121 said:

OK we will be all fine says Donald Trump

Relevance?

Just now, adamhanlon said:

Relevance?

Relevance is that it is pointless to say do not be concerned of a country it is the same approach of Donald Trump just shown on the Tv

Barbados may be per average very rich but wealth distribution is far from equal so that observation of not being concerned is rather out of place. Anybody can be concerned for who they want

Sorry Massimo, I'm not following your argument..

Has Trump stated that we should not be concerned? In addition, has he stated so about Barbados?

If not, you post has no relevance to the discussion, which is about the facets of the cOVID-19 outbreak. I cannot see how Trump's statements in connection with COVID-19 have any relevance to any discussion on COVID-19 travel restrictions?

@Interceptor121 That was a very ignorant statement given that you have no idea of my political leanings (definitely not Trump). However I have done significant business in Barbados so I am fairly familiar with their economy. 
 

12 minutes ago, adamhanlon said:

Sorry Massimo, I'm not following your argument..

Has Trump stated that we should not be concerned? In addition, has he stated so about Barbados?

If not, you post has no relevance to the discussion, which is about the facets of the cOVID-19 outbreak. I cannot see how Trump's statements in connection with COVID-19 have any relevance to any discussion on COVID-19 travel restrictions?

 

 

Adam I do not see the point of making a statement about not being concerned about Barbados, Italy, Iran or Mauritius. In a minute here someone will be providing a live forecast of what we need to be worried about and what not. In addition of course of the knowledge of the market evolution of DSLR, what autofocus system works best and the likes. I am not sure minimising anything is a good idea, the situation is quite serious and evolving in a very unpredictable manner. Right now most of equipment shops are selling nothing, and pools are closed, people are not flying and are barely making it back if their flights don't get cancelled.

I was trying to make the point that a larger economy has more resources to be self sufficient than a small one that is living on services that by the way for most serve foreigners not locals. Not being concerned does not apply here sorry

The point being made was that Barbados's economy (which you chose to use was an example) is based on international banking, not tourism.

It may be the case that this is going to be significantly impacted by the crisis, but your assumption that tourism's decline would dramatically affect Barbados's economy is incorrect.

I am quite sure that we are ALL very aware of how serious the situation is and, bluntly, we do not not need you or anyone else to point this out, particularly by conflating people's reasoning with that of Trump's. 

In terms of resilience, it is likely that per capita income will be the key metic. Economies that have small populations with high incomes will likely fare well and vice versa. Many of the places that we love and visit as underwater image makers have high populations, with low incomes and hence the prognosis is dire. Perhaps, rather than pontificating, we should be trying to figure out how we can help these people?

Adam

Tourism is the N1 service activity in Barbados, financial services mostly managed off shore investment of western economies including UK and comes after, if western economies make no cash nothing will go into Barbados banks.

In terms of what to do for image makers I think we should see what we can do for ourselves. I am Italian and we are leading in number of deaths despite we have a pretty strong health system. I am concerned about the turn this whole thing will take and I am not feeling optimistic. In terms of what to do it would help to have some cohesive policy instead of each country doing their own thing once there is a solution it should be relatively easy to export help. I myself kept travelling until complete lockdown of Italy and I have to say I thought some precaution were excessive but right now I am thinking that probably I was wrong and the whole travel for the year is screwed

Time to focus on UK diving!

Seems like this thread has lost its purpose. Probably time just to close it.

https://www.nytimes.com/article/coronavirus-travel-restrictions.html?0p19G=2870

Good summary the short version is that for most cases if you are accepted at destination you may go in quarantine and if you have travel insurance you are not covered
There are some combinations still allowed but not for long I guess


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Hello all,
Here are some other links on the subjects of worlwide travel restrictions -

https://restrictions.info/

https://pandemic.internationalsos.com/2019-ncov/ncov-travel-restrictions-flight-operations-and-screening

https://www.iatatravelcentre.com/international-travel-document-news/1580226297.htm

Things change fast, so keep in mind that these ressources, even official ones like the IATA, can be out of date to some extent.

There is talk of setting up travel bubbles / tourism corridor between countries of similar profiles, but I doubt this will be nothing more than a short-term solution.

Cheers,

ben