2004 UW-Photo Predictions

2003 has shown us a pretty amazing tide change in underwater photography. Consumer camera are now the system of choice for uw-photo beginners. DSLR's are fast replacing housed film cameras on the dive boats I have been on.

So what does 2004 have in store from us? I'll leave this thread open to editing up until December 31st and close it at the first of the year.

Here are some of my predictions, and I'd love to hear yours!

1) There will be 4 full-frame cameras on the market by the end of 2004:

Canon 1Ds and its upgrade model

Kodak 14n

Nikon F6

Fuji S3pro

Aquatica, Seacam, Ikelite, and Subal, UK-Germany, and possibly Nexus will all have a housing for one of more of these cameras.

2) Starting with the Olympus 5060, the OEM consumer camera housings will have interchangable ports as an option, allowing the use of Oly, Nikon, Canon wideangle converters.

3) Housed TTL flashes will start off strong, but will fade out by the end of 2004 as digital TTL strobes become available.

4) Underwater photo enthusiasts will be able to purchase a DSLR body for $699 and a starter housing sans ports for $1,000

5) "One Minute" printing will become available at some of the bigger dive shops (Ocean Frontiers, Jacks Dive Locker, etc) and on the better live-aboards.

6) The major underwater photo societies will all add digital photo contests, both for yearly contests, as well as smaller monthly contests. Eric and Herb will keep winning them :-P

7) I'll post more as I think of them.

Cheers

James

Some quick ones:

1. Canon will have a total of 4 dSLRs (not 5 as Thom Hogan predicted) that will basically map to the film lineup:

- Digital Rebel around $699 (I agree with James)

- 10d for another year at around $999-$1099

- 3D which will be a 1.3x, 8-9MP with the 1-series 45pt AF, but a smaller body (optional portrait grip). Might also be the 1D replacement, so 8 fps around $1999

- 1Ds will stay for until PMA 2005(?) FF, 11MP, $3999

2. Canon will be forced to compete with the F6 and will do so for the successor to the 1d or 1Ds. They may or may not beat Nikon to the punch, probably not though. In the short term, this won't do that much damage to Canon because they already have the various segments covered with the 1D / 1Ds. I figure $7000-$8000 for the full setup with body, FF sensor, PJ sensor, and film component.

3. Some enterprising young UW housing / strobe manufacturer will crack either D-TTL or E-TTL (please let it be E-) with an add on controller much like the manual controller Ike sells now. It will essentially convert the propietary signal to straight TTL and will sell like wildfire.

4. More and more housings will have S6 connectors available and manufacturers will start to standardize at least one end of the synch cord, keeping proprietary connections on the strobes.

5. My spending on camera and UW gear will continue to escalate as it has over the past 2 years.

That's it for now, maybe more tomorrow...

Tom

I can't find the handwritten list I did a couple of weeks ago, but will list some from memory. Will post the rest later

1. Major UW photo comps will **start** to change contest rules, and get over the fact that capture is irrelevant, and allow entries for major categories regardless of the form of capture.

2. Further to 1, there will be separate categories for manipulated and "photographic" entries, with the latter allowing only some sharpening and basic colour/exposure correction, and maybe cropping. Entrants will have to sign a declaration that they have abided by the rules.

3. DSLR strobes will become available (although I do like the idea of a separate controller mentioned by Tom)

4. Someone (hopefully Ikelite or Sea & Sea) will announce a fully sealed unit that never has to be opened. Charging will be done by conductive means, and Bluetooth, WiFi or some other wireless technology will be used to get the images out. This will be a lowish res. camera, maybe in the 2-3 megapixel range, and will be for the masses of divers who don't want to stuff around with o-rings, etc.

5. 2003 was the year of the DSLR, and 2004 will see a mainstream shift as film photogs move over, or at least use dual systems.

6. Similar to 4, someone (Ike?) will introduce a wireless (perhaps Bluetooth) strobe and transmitter combo, cutting down the number of o-rings to service. The transmitter will be small enough to fit inside a housing.

7. The Solomon Islands will re-emerge as a major destination for uw Photographers, with the stability issues being quickly resolved.

8. The 4/3's technology will fade away, as the critical mass (read Nikon and Canon) SLR users simply don't want to give up their existing lenses, and who said a 4:3 screen format is the right one anyway.

My original list also had a prediction of a D70 type camera from Nikon, but that is already old news.

Have fun

I have great respect for Thom Hogan's opinions, but the F6 prediction seems wild to me. If it is based on reality, we're in for some exciting developments. I'd hate to make housing predictions based on cameras that we are only speculating on.

I agree with Thom on the near-term predictions for the D70, D100 and D2x. I wouldn't be surprised to see the D100 replaced though he didn't predict it.

I am very excited about his Fuji S3 prediction. This is a family-oriented site, though!

I have some trouble believing that Canon will be able to hit 8-9MP and high frame rates with their 1D replacement. 8-9MP and 1.3x doesn't make sense at 3fps with their 1Ds already in the line. Everyone knows the 1D will be updated, but how fast can Canon make a CMOS sensor when Nikon limited theirs to just 4MP and 8fps? I think the 1D replacement will not be much different than the D2h in pixel count. I believe the 10D will be updated, though.

Underwater:

I don't think there will be that much interest in housing the D2h or the 1D replacement. If the D2x uses the same body, that may change.

Housing manufacturers will increasingly want to support a wide variety of dSLR's. We see that already in UK Germany, Seacam, S&S and Aquatica. Ikelite is focusing plenty of attention on it, too. A question will be whether they can accept being Canon or Nikon only.

If Nikon delivers an Hoganesque F6, there will be a huge clamoUring for housings from the pros. They will see that camera as allowing them to choose between digital and film entirely within one housed system, and they will consider the digital aspect of it as finally equal to film (old opinions die hard). Nexus may even consider housing it!

Most digital cameras do not require the strobe power people traditionally have used with film. I think that strobe development will continue to be slow (though we could sure use better) but I believe there will be a slow trend toward smaller, less powerful strobes.

I would like to personally lobby Inon for a larger version of the Z220 with double the power. An ISO 50 camera like the 1Ds could benefit from it.

I would like to personally lobby Inon for a larger version of the Z220 with double the power.  An ISO 50 camera like the 1Ds could benefit from it.

I'd rather have a smaller version with double the power

The DSLR market will split into the ~1.5x crop sensor and the full frame 36mm. This has happened to a large extent I think the Canon 1D is the only one in the middle at around ~1.3x. it's replacement will move one way or the other. There will be many more lenses designed for these 1.5x crop sensors from Nikon, Canon, and Sigma. We will consider the 1.5x crop cameras and the full frame cameras as entirly seperate systems, the way we currently view the 35mm and MF cameras. The 1.5x crop cameras will make up the vast majority of the SLR market ( "D" intentionally left out ). Look for the clever marketing people to come up with different names for the 2.

Since the amount of light needed from a strobe scales with the area of the camera sensor and it's sensitivity ( this part doen't vary much ), Craig is right that most people will not have as much a need for the big honking stobes of years past. Only the few with the full frame sensors will.

The Olympus 5060 will be far less popular underwater than it's predecessors. People with consumer cameras just don't want to deal with changing ports and housing strobes.

The megapixel race has come to an end. There won't be a consumer camera with higher than the 8M that Sony is putting out. The 1.5x crop cameras will probably not have more than the current 6.3M, and the full frame ones will not have more than the 14M of the Kodak.

1) I will buy a dSLR

2) An enterprising CAD/CAM/CNC company will realise that, if they use generic control shafts/gland arrangements, stereotactic capture techniques and generic ports, they can make bespoke housings for cameras of ANY make and model with reasonably rapid turnaround.

3) D-TTL/E-TTL protocols will not be cracked, or if they are, the answers will not be cost-effective, and the Ikelite/Sea and Sea/Seacam's of the world will not bring a product to market to allows use of these protocols. We will all learn to bracket macro exposures really really fast, or buy Fuji S3's (assuming they stay with the nikon original TTL protocol).

4) Fuji will stay with the nikon TTL protocol in the S3. It will either stay at the same price point and not be full frame, or go full frame and be cost competitive with the 1Ds. Either way, James will buy one...

5) James will win digital underwater photographer of the year in the Houston Underwater Photographic Society competitions. He'll beat me because he already has a dSLR

6) Ikelite will launch the Ds-200, which will be the most kick-ass strobe you've ever seen.

I agree with Herb that the megapixel race is pretty much over. I doubt we'll see an 8 MP Olympus point+shoot camera, for instance.

I agree with Herb that the megapixel race is pretty much over. I doubt we'll see an 8 MP Olympus point+shoot camera, for instance.

I think we will see an 8MP Olympus camera very soon. Other companies will certainly be releasing 8MP cameras soon. They can likely just OEM Sony's existing 8MP sensor.

Whether they are any "better" is a different question. It seems to me that the crop of 5MP cameras now aren't as good per pixel as the 4MP cameras were (e.g. noise).

I think the megapixel race has slowed considerably but is not over yet. Consumer P&S's have to differentiate somehow even if it's not meaningful. I agree with Eric.

I read recently a thread about resolution and lens performance. The author pointed out that even when the imager matches the lens capability you only get 70% of the potential lens performance (1/1.414). Makes sense. His point was that there was detail available to be had if you added megapixels. The problem is simply diminishing returns.

Now I believe the manufactures have to balance overall image quality, pixel count, and frame rate and they don't automatically rush to more pixels like they used to. I still believe we'll see increasing pixel counts.

I think the DS-200 prediction would be more convincing if Ike made it. Hopefully it will take a Lee filter holder on the face of it.

2) An enterprising CAD/CAM/CNC company will realise that, if they use generic control shafts/gland arrangements, stereotactic capture techniques and generic ports, they can make bespoke housings for cameras of ANY make and model with reasonably rapid turnaround.

I'm not predicting it for next year, but a major redesign of housings is over due.

1) Since all these cameras can be computer controlled, it make sense to just put one inside the housing and be free of all these mechanical constraints. A differenent camera will just require different firmware.

2) If in addition there's an external power/data port, then there's no need to ever open up the housing except to change lens. If, like Craig, you travel with two setups, one WA and one macro, then you can just about go the whole trip without doing any camera maintaince except on the aforementioned port.

3) Get rid of the electrical connection to the strobes and use optics. Eliminate another maintainance and reliability problem.

OK here's my 2 cents worth. Some of you guys have already hit the mark though...

- Consumer digicams max at 8mp from Sony, Olympus, Nikon, more high end glass with ED, rare earth elements in their lenses, faster lenses with larger (F1.4-F2.0) and smaller (F16-F22) aperatures and wider angle zooms (20-100mm equiv) a macro mode you don't have to push a button to get to and a real 1 button / 1 push manual white balance capability.

- Pro DSLRs max higher: Canon 16mp, Nikon 11mp, Fuji 11mp, Kodak 20mp, Consumer DSLRs get smaller and lighter

- Foveon does a full frame X3 chip with 22mp total (but nobody buys it)

- Medium Format self contained digital backs hit 30 mp from Kodak, Fuji

- More consumer digicams have oem housings (Nikon?)

- Sea & Sea builds 5mp consumer housed camera similar to Motormarine 3 w/ wide angle lense and big viewfinder.

- Inon builds accessory u/w ringlight strobe unit

- Overseas housing makers move towards a universal DSLR housing size and change control layout as new cameras come to market (Just like Ikelite is doing with their compact D100 / 300d housing) with electronic comtrols in the handgrip and a 1394 / USB output plug on the housing.

- someone (ANYONE!) makes a compact, bright, lightweight modeling light that works and is shutter activated with a nikon DSLR.

Someone take away my keyboard before I really get rolling.

Doug

I will house a DSLR in 2004.

Eric will not continue to win contests as he has run out of pictures to enter as the rules don't allow previous winners or published pics.

Any contest with close focus wide-angle will start to be won by me as Herb talks in his sleep and I have all his secrets. LOL

I think the megapixel race will slow in favoUr of lenses and full frame. ie I agree with Herb and the 1.5 lenses.

Todd will patent his "U" that others have taken up and be able to take more trips from the royalties. Donations gladly accepted.LOL

A housing will exist for the 14n before June.

- Inon builds accessory u/w ringlight strobe unit

Check!

I don't think I know anything much about this - not keeping up with the news and new to the DSLR game. But my guess on Canon's next DSLR move is another EF-S mount camera, with upgraded sensor, 10D feature set or maybe more, & maybe more MPixels. This would be announced together with a high quality EF-S 10-mm or 12-mm lens. The idea being that an EF-S very wide lens should be a lot cheaper than EF lens of the same length and quality, and longer lenses for the camera can be bought from the existing lineup of EF lenses. Price USD1400 for the body, don't have any idea about the lens.

-David

Hey don't leave out DV cam......

My wish list for 2004:-

- UW housing for the Panasonic AG-DVC80 -preferably by Gates

- Fathom UW video lens at an affortable price- say, less than that of a car !

- Digi video cam capable of taking 6 mega stills or DSLR capable of taking Mpeg2 video.

- Clear water and plenty of fish....

Shortly after introducing the F6, Nikon will announce the Nikonos Digital RS, a modular underwater SLR that accepts existing RS lenses and the F6 modular digital and film backs. There ya go.

My 2004 wishlist for video would be a single industry-wide writable HD-DVD standard that encompasses both red and blue laser. I'd also like competition in the prosumer HDV camera space, including a real 1080i camera. Neither of these appear likely in 2004, though.

In the absence of an HD-DVD standard, I'd like a good HD media format that I can encode inexpensively AND a consumer HD media appliance that can play it. That is likely enough to be a reasonable 2004 prediction.

I also predict that I will be able to kick HD butt with the new JVC HD10 and Gates housing. Too bad no one will be able to see the results but me!

I would have to disagree with the prediction of the F6 combined digi/film. I think it will fall bewteen two stools.

The 'megapixel' race will continue up to a max 20 megapixels. The general public always seem to believe that the bigger number the better. Just look at current advertising campaigns.

The S3pro will appear in October 2004, The hype will be huge, a very, very long waiting list and a recall for a fault 2 moths after hitting the streets.

Wireless transmission technology will have reached a speed at which it will be practical to transmit data from the underwater housings to a pickup sensor without cracking open the casing.

Canon sales will pick up more than they already are but there will be no major change in the Canon vs Nikon stakes. After all, the professional photographers are very entrenched in one camp or another and there is not a big enough difference between the two companies products to sway the prosumer market.

With the huge increase in the numbers of people taking up diving, the sale of 'cheap' digital underwater cameras and their housings will rise exponentially.

I would stake my wife on film processing speeds not breaking the 20 minute barrier in 2004. Labs and developing equipment are hideously expensive, and the demand for that extra 19 minutes speed is not enough for customers to pay a lot for it.

Wireless transmission technology will have reached a speed at which it will be practical to transmit data from the underwater housings to a pickup sensor without cracking open the casing.

Those speeds will have to improve dramatically (>0) through the aluminum housings. While they're at it, maybe they can send some juice the other way to recharge the battery.

WiFi doesn't work through metal. Can't even go down the hall on your typical liveaboard (at least not on the Undersea Hunter!).

I think the 1 minute developers are digital ones, not film. I have friends that have taken to traveling with a portable printer to make postcards on the spot. I see local digital printing as an interesting service.

Hmmm. I'll play.

1) Canon releases 1D replacement. They release 10d replacement with only modest performance improvements. Both these cameras and the 300d replacement will feature a larger chip (smaller crop) with modest pixel increase (same size pixel). The layout of each will be altered such that no existing housing will work with the new model. Someone on this board will jury rig a Sea & Sea housing to work with the new 10d replacement. No changes to the 1ds.

2) Nikon releases D70, D100 replacement and D2X. The D70 will sell OK, but not as well as the Canon DRebel. The D100 replacement will only be a slight upgrade to the existing D100. The D70 will leverage off of the existing D100 chip. The D100 will use the same chip. The improvements will be in other features such as faster AF, higher sync speed, larger buffer (i.e. more F100 like than N80 like). There will be no F6. A new full frame D2X will be anounced, but won't ship in 2004.

3) As prices drop, and product life cycles increase, we will see more D2X and 1ds housings available.

4) No one will have a D/E/i - TTL strobe and don't foresee one.

5) No new replacements for top of the line models from consumer digicams (e.g. Olympus C5060, Sony 828, Fuji S7000) in 2004. They will start offering more "accessory" lenses and flashes.

6) Fuji comes out with a new S3, not a full frame. It will feature the existing APS sized sensor with the new high resolution or high dynamic range technology anounced in 2003. It will be based not on the N80, but a higher performance body like the F100. We will all drool for this camera. All the housing mfgs. will build for it.

7) Medium Format will slowly die. Mamiya, Hasselblad, Rollei will be bought by someone or die. Pentax and Contax will continue on, but struggle. Survival will depend on selling an integrated back or full fledged digital camera.

8) This year, Thom's previous prediction on Foveon will come true.

9) Ikelite will come up with DX200.

10) Ikelite will come up with dual manual controller so that we only have to adjust one controller for both strobes.

11) Sealife and Bonica discontinue film cameras.

12) Digital entries for photo contests will become common place. Controversy over cheating will ensue. I will still have not entered a single photo contest. In my ever increasing neurotic behaviour, I will discard an alarming 99.8% of all my images.

13) My website will be fully operational.

14) I will give up digital for Large Format for most land shooting

15) I will actually sell all my excess camera and dive gear that I keep saying is going on e-bay.

16) Oh, I forgot. 4/3 becomes an Olympus only deal. Kodak and Fuji lose interest. Sigma gives up on the SD10 and starts making 4/3 lenses.

Those speeds will have to improve dramatically (>0) through the aluminum housings. While they're at it, maybe they can send some juice the other way to recharge the battery.

If getting the files out without having to open the housing is the goal, it would be fairly stright forward and cheap to put in an IRDA transmitter.

Getting power in is a much bigger challenge.