Wondering if anyone is in the region at the moment.

 

Concerned about the local population in the region. Many of the DMs and guides for the resorts live and have family in this area.

Also, I'm supposed to be in Lembeh in the middle of May, looking to hear what the impact of the eruption on diving operations may be like for the next couple of months.
 

We'll be in Bunaken - Lembeh starting end of mai.

I have some information, no  problem in this region... only the closed airport 

But it's only temporary (I hope)
Don't forget that the Ruang is more than 100 km from Lembeh..

If the vulcan generate a tsunami it will be only dangerous for the island place at a short distance  Lembeh is also protected from the north part of the "North Sulawesi"

 

I saw a simulation. 45 min for  the SMALL waves to arrive at Lembeh

We’re on Bunaken since Tuesday.  No volcanic effect, except we were delayed a day in Singapore.  No resorts, or anything around North Sulawesi, affected, except some ash on the “mainland” which washed away.  

It will depend on two things, first being volcanic activity, how much ash the volcano puts out and second wind direction.  In May wind is generally from NW-NE switching to SE generally in June sometime.  If wind blows ash towards the Manado airport they will close it.

 

You can forecast what the wind might do, but the volcano will do what it wants.  Up until monsoon winds switch a risk of ashfall remains.   The volcano is down from alert level 4 to level 3.  So it's basically a roll of the dice, whether or not the Lembeh is impacted.  A NNE wind will direct any ash fall towards Manado airport.

26 minutes ago, Chris Ross said:

You can forecast what the wind might do, but the volcano will do what it wants.

Like the wind.... you will only have "some" information on what will happen 😄

 

2 hours ago, CaolIla said:

Like the wind.... you will only have "some" information on what will happen 😄

 

perhaps, but you are at the mercy of the volcano while wind remains from the north, once it switches to the south it tends to stay there for some time and ash is a lot less likely to be an issue.